A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
